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retirement decision "The Retirement Decision" Decision Summary: I am at the 17.5 year point in my career and need to decide if I want to stay in the Navy past 20
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Submitted by canavarbebe on April 8, 2007
Category: Science
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"The Retirement Decision"
Decision Summary: I am at the 17.5 year point in my career and need to decide if I want to stay in the Navy past 20 years or retire and pursue other interests. My naval career to date has been successful and I consider myself competitive for promotion to O-6. However, I am not hard over on being a Navy Captain. In fact, considering the family ramifications of becoming a Captain in my career specialty, I may not want to be one at all. However, staying in the Navy for Captain may be economically advantageous. The decision to retire or not must be made by myself and my family within the next few months before we start negotiating with the detailer for the next set of orders.
Executive Summary
Four alternatives were analyzed for the decision problem. These are:
Retire at 20 years of service and seek employment in the local Dahlgren area
Retire at 20 years of service and seek out the very best career alternative
Stay in the Navy to make O-6 while trying to "homestead" in Wash DC
Stay in the Navy to make O-6 and be detailed in the best interests of the Navy
Three attributes were developed to base the decision problem on. These are:
Net present value of expected salaries and income stream over my lifetime
Number of moves my family would be expected to make
Satisfaction level of the various military and civilian job opportunities
Utilities and relative weights were developed for each of these attributes. A decision tree was modeled for the expected scenarios. Based on the expected utilities and weightings the preferred choice is to Retire at 20 years of service and seek employment in the local Dahlgren area. Sensitivity analysis was developed for the weighting of each attribute and "Retiring at 20 years" was always preferred to "Staying in the Navy to make O-6".
An Excel spreadsheet...
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