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the Probability of a Major Hurrican Hitting New Orleans. The Probability
of a Major Hurricane Hitting New Orleans Table of Contents ...
Submitted by ruadv81 on May 26, 2005
Category: Science
Words: 4656 | Pages: 19
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The Probability of a Major Hurricane Hitting New Orleans
Table of Contents
Executive Summary 3
Introduction 3
Hypothesis 7
Analysis & Method 8
Conclusion 10
References 12
Appendix 14
Executive Summary
New Orleans, Louisiana lies at the second lowest elevation among major cities in the United States. It is a city surrounded by water, making it almost like an island. To counter this dangerous combination of the low elevation along with the lakes, rivers and swamps surrounding it, the Army Corps of Engineers built a series of levees around the city to foster its protection. It is these very same levees however that might doom the city should a Category 3 hurricane ever hit. Our statistical analyses examined the current belief that there is a 39% probability that New Orleans will be hit by a major hurricane and based on the resulting Z-score, rejected that belief. We did find however that the probability, while not 39%, was still in the 30th percentile range, which should still be a major cause for concern among the leaders and residences of the city of New Orleans.
Introduction
New Orleans is a city that is rich in culture as well as history. The city is in effect, an island – Lake Pontchartrain surrounds the city to the north, the Mississippi River to the west and south, and a bevy of lakes – including Lake Borne to the east. Surrounding the city is a series of levees to keep these bodies of water at bay. In addition to these levees, the only defense the city has is a series of canals and a very antiquated pumping system. However, the same levees that protect the city, makes it a death trap should a major hurricane make a direct hit to the metropolitan area. The risk of intense flooding brought forth by storm surges of 20+ feet would wipe the city...
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