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欧洲电信行业研究报告

Company

Europe Telecommunications

25 April 2008

Global Markets Research

DB X-Connect; Week 17-08 Tracking the market
Matthew Bloxham, CFA Carola Bardelli
Research Analyst (44) 20 754 58163 matthew.bloxham@db.com Research Analyst (39) 0286379708 carola.bardelli@db.com

Current Events
Top picks
Vodafone Group Plc (VOD.L),GBP159.20 Deutsche Telekom (DTEGn.DE),EUR11.18 Elisa Corporation (ELI1V.HE),EUR16.30 Buy Buy Buy

Table of contents
Multiples, ratings and valuation......................... Page 2 Weekly Summary .............................................. Page 4 Debt and Derivatives ......................................... Page 7 Dividends........................................................... Page 8 Events Calendar................................................. Page 9 Weekly news .................................................... Page 10 DB Research..................................................... Page 14

M&S conjecture continues Last week the sector traded broadly in line with the wider market with the SXKP up 1.2% versus the STOXX up 1.4%. KPN was the biggest SXKP constituent gainer last week (+7%) following press conjecture regarding the prospect of bid interest from Telefonica (subsequently denied), and Elisa (-14.9%) was the biggest faller following a surprise profit warning early in the week. The week ahead sees 1Q08 results from KPN (Tues) and Telenor (Weds), and Bouygues goes exdividend (Mon). Strategy/Economics news and analysis Consensus Earnings Trends: Globally, earnings estimate downgrades have continued for the eighth consecutive month with accelerating momentum. Global 12-month forward earnings have seen the second strongest 1-month downgrades since 2003 of 1.5% and the strongest 3-month downgrades (4.3%). Key DB Telecoms research published this week BT: FY07/08 results due on 15 May will, in our view, be as notable for the update on capex guidance as they will be for farewells to the outgoing CEO. We have...