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Nissan

Submitted by osetr on March 19, 2007

Category: Music and Movies
Words: 313 | Pages: 2
Views: 299
Popularity Rank: 32,306
Average Member Grade: N/A (Add a Comment / Grade this Paper)

Forecasting-ĆProcess of predicting a future event
ĆShort-range forecast
”VUp to 1 year; usually less than 3 months
”VJob scheduling, worker assignments
ĆMedium-range forecast
”V3 months to 3 years
”VSales & production planning, budgeting
ĆLong-range forecast
”V3+ years
”VNew product planning, facility location
ĆMedium/long range forecasts deal with more comprehensive issues and support management decisions regarding planning and products, plants and processes.
ĆShort-term forecasting usually employs different methodologies than longer-term forecasting
ĆShort-term forecasts tend to be more accurate than longer-term forecasts.
ĆEconomic forecasts
”VAddress business cycle, e.g., inflation rate, money supply etc.
ĆTechnological forecasts
”VPredict rate of technological progress
”VPredict acceptance of new product
ĆDemand forecasts
”VPredict sales of existing product
ƒÜHuman resources ”V hiring, laying off, and training of workers depend on forecasting.
ƒÜCapacity ”V when capacity is inadequate, the resulting shortages can mean undependable delivery, loss of customer, and market share.
ƒÜSupply-Chain Management ”V good supplier relations and the ensuring price advantages for materials and parts depend on accurate forecasting
7 STEPS of forecasting.
ĆDetermine the use of the forecast
ĆSelect the items to be forecasted
ĆDetermine the time horizon of the forecast
ĆSelect the forecasting model(s)
ĆGather the data
ĆMake the forecast
ĆValidate and implement results
Qualitative Methods:
ĆUsed when situation is vague & little data exist
”VNew products
”VNew technologyƒÜInvolves intuition, experience
Quantitative Methods:
ƒÜUsed when situation is ”„stable”¦ & historical data exist
”VExisting...

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