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Submitted by nkwilliams on February 6, 2006
Category: Business
Words: 2088 | Pages: 9
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This paper will discuss the macroeconomic forecast information from the following sources; Conference Board, Mortgage Banker's Association and TD Waterhouse. The analysis of the information will discuss unemployment rates the GDP, inflation rate, and interest rates projected out for the next two years. We chose to examine the pharmaceutical industry for our projection of the economic situation of the US over the next two years.
The three sources indicate that the Real Gross Domestic Product will be around the 3.1 4.0 percent in 2005 and 2006. In the fourth quarter of 2004, the real GDP was about 4.4 4.8%, which meant that it ended the year on a strong note, compared to what was expected.
When the GDP is on the rise or steady the economy is producing at a positive level, however with the projection for 2005 and 2006, the economy is expected to keep struggling. Analysts indicate that in order for the economy to be strong the GDP has to be higher than 5.0%. However, analyst have pointed out that the diminishing monetary and fiscal stimulus, pressures from an overstocked housing market, and rising bond yields will take some wind out of the U.S. economy's sails, resulting in a deceleration in GDP growth to less than 3% on average in the second half of 2006. These disappointingly low rates are less than the 3.7 percent average annual growth rate in real GDP over the last economic expansion (from 1991 2000).
According to the Conference Board, Mortgage Banker's Association and TD Waterhouse the unemployment rate should remain steady. Currently the unemployment rate is about 5.5%, the projected unemployment rate is expected to be between 5.3 5.5% for 2005 and 2006. The economic model indicates that a 5.3 percent rate of unemployment represents full employment for the economy. While the national economy did see much lower unemployment rates from 1997 2001, during the...
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