OPPapers.com

Global Financial Crisis

How the global financial crisis affects India?
The key question confronting the economy now is the backwash effect of the American (or global) financial crisis. Central banks in several countries, including India, have moved quickly to improve liquidity, and the finance minister has warned that there could be some impact on credit availability. That implies more expensive credit (even public sector banks are said to be raising money at 11.5 per cent, so that lending rates have to head for 16 per cent and higher -- which, when one thinks about it, is not unreasonable when inflation is running at 12 per cent).
For those looking to raise capital, the alternative of funding through fresh equity is not cheap either, since stock valuations have suffered in the wake of the FII pull-out. In short, capital has suddenly become more expensive than a few months ago and, in many cases, it may not be available at all.
The big risk is a possible repeat of what happened in 1996: Projects that are halfway to completion, or companies that are stuck with cash flow issues on businesses that are yet to reach break even, will run out of cash. If the big casualty then was steel projects (recall Mesco, Usha and all the others), one of the casualties this time could be real estate, where building projects are half-done all over the country and some developers who touted their 'land banks' find now that these may not be bankable.
The only way out of the mess is for builders to drop prices, which had reached unrealistic levels and assumed the characteristics of a property bubble, so as to bring buyers back into the market, but there is not enough evidence of that happening.
The question meanwhile is: Who else is frozen in the sudden glare of the headlights? The answer could be consumers, many of whom are already quite leveraged. More expensive money means that floating rate loans begin to bite even more; even those not caught in such a pincer will decide that purchases of durables and...