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How Is The Economic Downturn Affecting The Airline Industry?

Submitted by dfratino on April 30, 2008

Category: Business
Words: 948 | Pages: 4
Views: 131
Popularity Rank: 86,210
Average Member Grade: N/A (Add a Comment / Grade this Paper)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

 Stagflation in US economy threatens outlook for the airline industry profitability. US airlines forecasting Q108 losses citing high fuel costs and a potential economic slowdown.

 Other regions of the world will expand such as Asia, Middle East and Latin America.

 Slowdown has already affected some US small-mid cap carriers with the recent onslaught of bankruptcies.

 US majors are better armed to combating the effects of the sharp increase in jet fuel. Cost reduction initiatives have been announced.

 Slowdown in the US economy is expected to accelerate consolidation talks between the majors.

 Cash cushions at most US majors from a profitable 2007 will help them in the short-term. Financial impact of slowdown could be delayed to 2009.

 FAA investigations into major US airlines maintenance practices regarding AD’s were heightened as a result of the increased scrutiny following lapses of compliance.

ANALYSIS

 Stagflation in US economy threatens outlook for the airline industry profitability. US airlines forecasting Q108 losses citing high fuel costs and a potential economic slowdown.

Downturn in Economy
 Profitability for the airline industry adjusted to $4.5B
 US airlines are most exposed to the risks in the business environment.
 US airlines forecast cut to $1.8B net profit in 2008.
 This could turn into a net loss if the economic environment deteriorates further.
­ If central banks fail to reverse the credit crunch, the outlook could be worse.
­ US consumer confidence slumped in March to levels consistent with a serious recession

Increase in Jet Fuel Prices
 Record high numbers of $130+/barrel.
 Airlines like Delta only hedged at $90/barrel
 The offset to...

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