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DSS Project. DSS Project: Objective: Build a firm demand model. Variables:
For AFD(dependant): Independents: Period Average Demand ...
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Submitted by squirrelmu on October 9, 2007
Category: Miscellaneous
Words: 255 | Pages: 2
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DSS Project:
Objective:
Build a firm demand model.
Variables:
For AFD(dependant):
Independents:
Period
Average Demand
Average Price
Average Advertising
Average advertising 1 quarter ago
Average R&D 1 quarter ago
Average advertising 2 quarters ago
Average R&D 2 quarters ago
For NSOM (dependant):
Independents:
Relative Price
Relative Advertising
Normalized Share of Market 1 quarter ago
Relative R&D1 Quarter ago
Relative Advertising 1 Quarter ago
Relative R&D 2 Quarters ago
Relative Advertising 2 Quarters ago
As we will see not all Independent variables are relevant or needed.
Start by Deseasonalizing and trending the deseasonalized values:
Forecasting results for Avg_Dem Date Observation SeasIndex DeseasObs DeseasFCast DeseasError Forecast Error
Q1 1202.000 0.891 1349.574
Moving averages Q2 1482.000 0.878 1688.491
Q3 1814.000 1.150 1577.187
Span 4 Q4 1261.000 1.081 1165.981
Q1 1840.000 0.891 2065.903 1445.308 620.595 1287.266 552.734
Estimation period Q2 1758.000 0.878 2002.947 1624.391 378.557 1425.738 332.262
Deseas Actual Q3 2227.000 1.150 1936.271 1703.005 233.266 1958.709 268.291
MAE 310.0145 299.4436 Q4 2174.000 1.081 2010.185 1792.776 217.409 1938.873 235.127
RMSE 374.0444 354.8475 Q1 1438.000 0.891 1614.548 2003.826 -389.278 1784.711 -346.711
MAPE 14.08% 14.08% Q2 1739.000 0.878 1981.300 1890.988 90.312 1659.732 79.268
Q3 2580.000 1.150 2243.187 1885.576 357.611 2168.693 411.307
Q4 2742.000 1.081 2535.385 1962.305 573.080 2122.218 619.782
Q1 1643.000 0.891 1844.717 2093.605 -248.889 1864.673 -221.673
Q2 1546.000 0.878 1761.409 2151.147 -389.738 1888.076 -342.076
Q3 2306.000 1.150...
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